Conspiracy of Ignorance

Conspiracy theories have become quite popular these days: “The central banks don’t want to let prices decrease, they call this ‘deflation’ as if it is a bad thing.”, “The scientists are lying to us, global warming is (not real) (not our fault) a scam”. “Doctors and health organizations lie, vaccines are not effective”, etc. There are even worse ones out there, somehow grabbing a foothold into our societies against all evidence or reason.

One cause of this is ignorance. Yes, most people do not understand the subtle reasons why a deflationary policy is not a good idea (hint, it disincentivizes spending/investing), or the biological mechanisms behind a vaccine, or the interactions between greenhouse gasses and the atmosphere, oceans, etc. That is not ideal, but nobody is born knowing and these topics are complex. We specialize for a reason.

But these topics can be, and have been explained, repeatedly, in layman’s terms. We could then argue that it is laziness. People state opinions with minimum or no effort to understand the facts beforehand. There is, no doubt, some of that.

But laziness does not quite explain where all of these opposite arguments are coming from. Opposing arguments are often elaborated (e.g. “It is a natural solar cycle”) and might be the result of intentional propaganda, made by parties interested in muddling the waters or influencing public opinion. There is evidence for this, in docs and slides leaked from cigarette companies, oil companies, political parties, etc. There is money to be made by generating doubt and minimizing or delaying action. These are the actual, demonstrated conspiracies!

Nevertheless, some people seem to just prefer the crazy ones. The ones where the entire world-wide medical, economic or scientific community somehow achieved perfect coordination and alignment, effectively eliminated all dissention and whistleblowing, and pushed forward a false narrative for no apparent reason or gain to themselves. This goes well beyond putting on you dark hooded cape on Saturday nights and go to the local conspiracy meeting, it would require an unparalleled EvilCon!

The existence of mayor impediments, missing pieces, logic inconsistencies or missing motives is no real barrier for conspiracy theorists. They just ignore these consistently and conveniently, in a way that goes beyond simple ignorance or laziness. There is something else underneath, there is an issue of trust. When people are choosing what to believe, they are purposefully rejecting the answers coming from all of our traditional institutions. They are rejecting all expert advice.

The current post-modernist environment is to blame in large part, this idea that we are just members or one group or another, in a perpetual struggle for power, where any difference in positions or outcomes is the result of oppression. Of course, if I’m not a scientist, the scientists are the enemy, out to trick me. If I’m not rich, the rich are the enemy, manipulating the economy against me. All over, this idea that the very institutions that, flawed as they are, gave us the civilization that we live in are there to hurt us.

The negative impact of this cannot be overstated. If we, as a society, destroy trust in our experts and institutions, we are impairing our ability to understand, align and act in concert. Sadly, nature cares not for our philosophical struggles, and will just enact consequences. Those so far include species going extinct by the hundreds, pandemic-related deaths by the millions, etc. The list is long and nuanced, and the bill will only increase over time.

We have built an entire civilization on top of our accumulated knowledge and collaboration, and it could certainly burn if we take these pillars away. Our institutions are in need of improvement, perhaps some even redemption, but we, all of us, should be in the business of investing in them rather than fighting them.